Parasitized or non-parasitized, why? A study of factors influencing tick burden in roe deer neonates.

Ixodes ricinus, the most common species of tick in Europe, is known to transmit major pathogens to animals and humans such as Babesia spp. or Borrelia spp. Its abundance and distribution have been steadily increasing in Europe during recent decades, due to global environmental changes. Indeed, as ticks spend most of their life in the environment, their activity and life cycle are highly dependent on environmental conditions and therefore, on climate or habitat changes. Simultaneously, wild ungulates have expanded their range and increased dramatically in abundance worldwide, in particular roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), allowing tick populations to grow and spread. Currently, tick infestation on newborn wild ungulates is poorly documented. However, newborn ungulates are considered more sensitive to tick bites and pathogen transmission because of their immature immune systems. Thus, improving knowledge about the factors influencing tick infestation on newborns is essential to better understand their health risks. This study was conducted at Trois-Fontaines Forest, Champagne-Ardenne, France (1992-2018). Based on a long-term monitoring of roe deer fawns, we used a novel Bayesian model of the infestation of fawns to identify which biotic or abiotic factors were likely to modify the level of infestation by ticks of 965 fawns over time. We show that tick burden increased faster during the first days of life of the fawns and became constant when fawns were five days old and more, which could be explained by the depletion of questing ticks or the turnover of ticks feeding on fawns. Moreover, despite the known positive influence of humidity on tick activity, the tick burdens were weakly related to this parameter. Our results demonstrate that tick infestation was highly variable among years, particularly between 2000-2009. We hypothesize that this results from a modification of habitat caused by Hurricane Lothar.

The role of ungulates in nowadays temperate forests. A response to Fløjgaard et al. (DOI:10.1111/gcb.14029).

In Boulanger et al. (2018), we investigated the effects of ungulates on forest plant diversity. By suggesting a revisit of our conclusions regarding ecosystem dynamics since the late Pleistocene, Fløjgaard et al. (2018) came to the conclusion that moderate grazing in forest should be a conservation target. Since major points of our paper were mis- or over- interpreted, we put the record straight on our study system and on the scope of our conclusions. Finally, we advocate for an assessment of the conservation issues of ungulates in forests not only regarding hypothetical and still debated states of past ecosystems but also considering timely challenges for forest ecosystems.

Ungulates increase forest plant species richness to the benefit of non-forest specialists.

Large wild ungulates are a major biotic factor shaping plant communities. They influence species abundance and occurrence directly by herbivory and plant dispersal, or indirectly by modifying plant-plant interactions and through soil disturbance. In forest ecosystems, researchers' attention has been mainly focused on deer overabundance. Far less is known about the effects on understory plant dynamics and diversity of wild ungulates where their abundance is maintained at lower levels to mitigate impacts on tree regeneration. We used vegetation data collected over 10 years on 82 pairs of exclosure (excluding ungulates) and control plots located in a nation-wide forest monitoring network (Renecofor). We report the effects of ungulate exclusion on (i) plant species richness and ecological characteristics, (ii) and cover percentage of herbaceous and shrub layers. We also analyzed the response of these variables along gradients of ungulate abundance, based on hunting statistics, for wild boar (Sus scrofa), red deer (Cervus elaphus) and roe deer (Capreolus capreolus). Outside the exclosures, forest ungulates maintained higher species richness in the herbaceous layer (+15%), while the shrub layer was 17% less rich, and the plant communities became more light-demanding. Inside the exclosures, shrub cover increased, often to the benefit of bramble (Rubus fruticosus agg.). Ungulates tend to favour ruderal, hemerobic, epizoochorous and non-forest species. Among plots, the magnitude of vegetation changes was proportional to deer abundance. We conclude that ungulates, through the control of the shrub layer, indirectly increase herbaceous plant species richness by increasing light reaching the ground. However, this increase is detrimental to the peculiarity of forest plant communities and contributes to a landscape-level biotic homogenization. Even at population density levels considered to be harmless for overall plant species richness, ungulates remain a conservation issue for plant community composition.

Fine-scale species distribution changes in a mixed oak stand over two successive generations.

Large-scale tree distribution changes have received considerable attention but underlying demo-genetic mechanisms are less well documented. We used a diachronic approach to track species shifts in a mixed oak stand (Quercus petraea-Quercus robur) at a fine spatiotemporal scale. Species assignment was made using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) fingerprints employing clustering and parentage analysis. Mating patterns and reproductive success were assessed by parentage analysis. Plot-based inventories of soil parameters and sapling densities provided ecological and demographic information, respectively. Sapling density and reproductive success was higher in Q. petraea than in Q. robur, and were correlated with a spatial expansion of Q. petraea (50% to 67% of the area). Admixed trees resulting from hybridization and backcrossing between the two species were more frequent under the Q. robur canopy. We suspect that species' differential responses to ongoing environmental changes and interspecific competition are the predominant factors accounting for the recruitment success of Q. petraea, while human interference, differential reproduction and hybridization (and backcrossings) are probably of more limited importance. We anticipate in mixed Q. petraea-Q. robur stands, under current ongoing environmental change, that these processes will be enhanced, at least in the western part of the distribution of the two species.

Species distribution models may misdirect assisted migration: insights from the introduction of Douglas-fir to Europe.

Species distribution models (SDMs), which statistically relate species occurrence to climatic variables, are widely used to identify areas suitable for species growth under future climates and to plan for assisted migration. When SDMs are projected across times or spaces, it is assumed that species climatic requirements remain constant. However, empirical evidence supporting this assumption is rare, and SDM predictions could be biased. Historical human-aided movements of tree species can shed light on the reliability of SDM predictions in planning for assisted migration. We used Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), a North American conifer introduced into Europe during the mid-19th century, as a case-study to test niche conservatism. We combined transcontinental data sets of Douglas-fir occurrence and climatic predictors to compare the realized niches between native and introduced ranges. We calibrated a SDM in the native range and compared areas predicted to be climatically suitable with observed presences. The realized niches in the native and introduced ranges showed very limited overlap. The SDM calibrated in North America had very high predictive power in the native range, but failed to predict climatic suitability in Europe where Douglas-fir grows in climates that have no analogue in the native range. We review the ecological mechanisms and silvicultural practices that can trigger such shifts in realized niches. Retrospective analysis of tree species introduction revealed that the assumption of niche conservatism is erroneous. As a result, distributions predicted by SDM are importantly biased. There is a high risk that assisted migration programs may be misdirected and target inadequate species or introduction zones.

Assessing the effects of management on forest growth across France: insights from a new functional-structural model.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The structure of a forest stand, i.e. the distribution of tree size features, has strong effects on its functioning. The management of the structure is therefore an important tool in mitigating the impact of predicted changes in climate on forests, especially with respect to drought. Here, a new functional-structural model is presented and is used to assess the effects of management on forest functioning at a national scale. METHODS: The stand process-based model (PBM) CASTANEA was coupled to a stand structure module (SSM) based on empirical tree-to-tree competition rules. The calibration of the SSM was based on a thorough analysis of intersite and interannual variability of competition asymmetry. The coupled CASTANEA-SSM model was evaluated across France using forest inventory data, and used to compare the effect of contrasted silvicultural practices on simulated stand carbon fluxes and growth. KEY RESULTS: The asymmetry of competition varied consistently with stand productivity at both spatial and temporal scales. The modelling of the competition rules enabled efficient prediction of changes in stand structure within the CASTANEA PBM. The coupled model predicted an increase in net primary productivity (NPP) with management intensity, resulting in higher growth. This positive effect of management was found to vary at a national scale across France: the highest increases in NPP were attained in forests facing moderate to high water stress; however, the absolute effect of management on simulated stand growth remained moderate to low because stand thinning involved changes in carbon allocation at the tree scale. CONCLUSIONS: This modelling approach helps to identify the areas where management efforts should be concentrated in order to mitigate near-future drought impact on national forest productivity. Around a quarter of the French temperate oak and beech forests are currently in zones of high vulnerability, where management could thus mitigate the influence of climate change on forest yield.

Climate change impacts on tree ranges: model intercomparison facilitates understanding and quantification of uncertainty.

Model-based projections of shifts in tree species range due to climate change are becoming an important decision support tool for forest management. However, poorly evaluated sources of uncertainty require more scrutiny before relying heavily on models for decision-making. We evaluated uncertainty arising from differences in model formulations of tree response to climate change based on a rigorous intercomparison of projections of tree distributions in France. We compared eight models ranging from niche-based to process-based models. On average, models project large range contractions of temperate tree species in lowlands due to climate change. There was substantial disagreement between models for temperate broadleaf deciduous tree species, but differences in the capacity of models to account for rising CO(2) impacts explained much of the disagreement. There was good quantitative agreement among models concerning the range contractions for Scots pine. For the dominant Mediterranean tree species, Holm oak, all models foresee substantial range expansion.